Tonight is the night; the main event of this summer for all of us football fans is going down – the Confederation Cup final game between Brazil and Spain. On one side we get the world-champions a two consecutive time European champions – the perpetual Spanish team. On the other side, the home team, the five-time world cup winners, the land of Samba – Brazil.
The excitement is large because not only that these teams are considered between the best teams in the world today, but also because while they’re both considered to play happy football, they have a very different attitude to the game. Brazil goes for a swift game – fast and direct attacks, aimed to isolate Neymar, Fred or Hulk against as fewer Spanish defenders as possible. Spain on the other hand has a completely different game philosophy. They believe that long and continuous ball-possession will gain them control over the game, will eventually get the Brazilian team out-of-lines, unorganized, confused; and then, two-three fast moves by Xabi, Iniesta, Silve or anyone else will set the kill.
As interesting as this all may sound, there’s one larger concern involves – how to make money out of this game?
Well, let’s use what we know and see which alternatives we have. Do note, we have quite a lot.
First of all, according to all betting sites, Spain is the favorite to win this game. So what we want to check is first – where can we get the best odds on Spain winning; and two – what can we do to reduce the loss amount in case Spain turns out to lose and Brazil wins (what finance people call “risk hedging”).
Well I will leave you the joy of browsing through and Internet and finding the best odds for a Spanish win tonight. However, I will offer you a tip on how to hedge the risk in-case Spain losses. Well, as we all know, Spain tends to dominant its game using possession. They use it in order to frustrate their opponent, and maximize control over the pitch. Concealing a goal has the most potential to ruin their plans. This is why a bet that Brazil (or both teams) will score is the probably one of the best tools you have in order to hedge yourself in the case that Brazil wins. Once again, two bets are involved here: 1. Spain wins. 2. Brazil (or both teams) scores.
Another hedging tool against a Spanish win could be ‘Over 2.5′ goals or ‘Over 3.5′ goals in the game. This is not to say that Spain will surely lose in case the game will turn out to have multiple goals – this is to say that more goals means that the Brazilian approach took over which means larger likelihood that Brazil will win. Of course, the vice versa bet works as well; a Brazilian win with a ‘Under 2.5\3.5′ goals scored in the game.
Another, rather exotic, bet could use the corner-kicks amount. Well, once again, Spain’s game is focused on mid-field domination. Also meaning, not much use of isolating wing players and preventing Brazil from isolating their wingers as well. Brazil, of course, goes for the opposite; their entire approach to this game is built on their ability to isolate their wingers against a single Spanish defender. Isolating your wingers is a way to score goals, but most importantly – it boosts the potential to reach a corner kick. This means that combining either a Spanish win with a high amount of corner-kicks or a Brazilian win with a low amount of corner-kicks has potential to hedge your risks.
One thing to take into consideration of course – is the outcome from combining these different scenarios. Make sure you do proper calculations that guarantee you a profit in the case that both scenarios have either fulfilled or unfulfilled. For example, if you bet that Spain will win and Brazil will score, make sure that the total profit from the scenario in which Spain wins and Brazil doesn’t score is positive! Otherwise, find a better bet using the tips above or any other strategy you use in order to try and ensure profits tonight.
Remember, the tips above are no assurance to actually make a profit tonight, however they give you an idea, maybe even a good idea, on a thinking-style that you might want to use tonight in order to not only enjoy the good football we’re all expecting, but also to make money out of it.
